BPS Economic Growth Data: Between Fact and Illusion

August 27, 2025 | 01:45 am

By Bambang Juanda, Professor of Economics astatine IPB University.

LATELY, the nationalist has erstwhile again been presented with economical figures from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) that person triggered assorted reactions, from awe and disorder to suspicion. The latest study connected Indonesia’s economical maturation successful the 2nd 4th of 2025, which reached 5.12 percent year-on-year, for example, has received crisp criticism. This is not lone due to the fact that the fig exceeded the expectations of galore economists but besides due to the fact that its ‘sense of reality’ is considered arsenic not successful enactment with the public’s empirical experience, arsenic they inactive look wide layoffs, soaring nutrient prices, and mounting unit connected household purchasing power.

This benignant of polemic does not conscionable look successful economical maturation data. Poverty and unemployment information often besides rise questions owed to the operational definitions utilized by BPS. Some economists knock that this maturation information appears without capable methodological transparency: the figures look to conscionable appear, looking awesome connected paper, but are hard to consciousness successful regular reality.

What is truly happening? Is BPS’s method outdated? Or is the nationalist lacking an knowing of however statistic work?

The Statistics Kitchen Is More Than Just Numbers

It is important to recognize that macroeconomic statistic are not the effect of nonstop reflection of the full population. In galore cases, these figures are generated done model-based estimations, illustration data, and method assumptions. For example, gross home merchandise (GDP) is calculated utilizing production, expenditure, and income approaches—each with a analyzable methodological model and susceptible to revision.

A factual illustration tin beryllium seen successful the calculation of output successful peculiar economical zones (SEZs). In the past, SEZ information was estimated done samples oregon weighting models due to the fact that existent information was not available. It was lone successful 2025 that BPS claimed to person conducted a nonstop census (complete enumeration) acknowledgment to cardinal authorities intervention. As a result, the output fig could leap drastically. Is this a methodological betterment oregon governmental manipulation? The reply depends connected one’s perspective. However, from a statistical standpoint, information comparing 2 periods should usage a accordant method (apples to apples). When BPS compares this year’s fig (from the SEZ census) with past year’s (from the SEZ estimation), the economical maturation shown has a imaginable for an upward bias, adjacent if unintentionally.

Where is the Public’s Economic Reality?

In an interrogation with Rhenald Kasali, Deputy Chief of Statistics Indonesia Sonny Harry Budiutomo Harmadi explained that this precocious maturation occurred owed to accrued mobility from tourism activities during large spiritual holidays, which boosted depletion for proscription and restaurants. It besides reflected the mobilization effect of the integer economy, the originative economy, and a surge successful authorities spending. However, this becomes a occupation erstwhile macroeconomic maturation is not parallel to the prime of the public’s microeconomic life.

Household depletion data, which has the highest publication (54.25 percent), grew by lone 4.97 percent (year-on-year), little than the full gross home merchandise growth. This indicates an imbalance successful the sources of growth, arsenic it is dominated by authorities spending and exports. Meanwhile, imports accrued by 11.65 percent, driven by a emergence successful the import of superior goods and earthy materials, some successful worth and volume. Similarly, the question of layoffs successful labor-intensive sectors similar textiles and manufacturing makes the nationalist question the validity of the ‘inclusive’ economical maturation narrative, particularly since the unemployment complaint besides decreased, arsenic presented by BPS Chief Amalia Adininggar connected May 25, 2025.

Poverty information showing a alteration successful the fig of mediocre radical has been met with skepticism. The nationalist mean poorness enactment is inactive astir Rp600,000 per month, which is not adjacent capable to bargain basal necessities for a week successful a large city. This is wherever the question arises: is BPS’s explanation of ‘poor’ inactive socially relevant? We are besides awaiting the improvement of the National Socio-Economic Single Data, which is reportedly going to beryllium officially updated each 3 months truthful that assorted societal assistance programs are not misdirected.

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